Hindsight bias

Overestimating how predictable an outcome was, and misremembering your own earlier uncertainty as smaller, once you know how it turned out.

Established Supported by convergent, high-quality evidence.

The tendency, once you know how something turned out, to overestimate how predictable that outcome really was beforehand — and to misremember your own earlier uncertainty as having been smaller than it actually was.

See Hindsight bias for the classic experimental demonstration and why it’s a reason to doubt a retold “I had a feeling” claim that wasn’t written down in advance.