Coincidence Chance, pattern, and the stories we make

Library

The bibliography behind this site: every source cited in an article, with enough detail to find and check it yourself.

Every entry below has been opened and checked by an editor before being cited; see the sources policy for the full source hierarchy and verification standard.

  1. Diaconis, Persi; Mosteller, Frederick (1989). Methods for Studying Coincidences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(408), 853-861. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478847
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  2. Dunn, Olive Jean (1961). Multiple Comparisons Among Means. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 56(293), 52-64. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1961.10482090
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  3. Gilovich, Thomas; Vallone, Robert; Tversky, Amos (1985). The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295-314. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  4. Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam (2018). Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers. Econometrica, 86(6), 2019-2047. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14943
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  5. Jung, Carl Gustav (1973). Synchronicity: An Acausal Connecting Principle.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  6. Main, Roderick (2018). Research on Synchronicity: Status and Prospects. Research in Analytical Psychology: Applications from Scientific, Historical, and Cross-Cultural Research, 135-156.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  7. Conrad, Klaus (1958). Die beginnende Schizophrenie: Versuch einer Gestaltanalyse des Wahns.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  8. Liu, Jiangang; Li, Jun; Feng, Lu; Li, Ling; Tian, Jie; Lee, Kang (2014). Seeing Jesus in Toast: Neural and Behavioral Correlates of Face Pareidolia. Cortex, 53, 60-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2014.01.013
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  9. Nickerson, Raymond S. (1998). Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  10. Fischhoff, Baruch (1975). Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  11. Fleming, Alexander (1929). On the Antibacterial Action of Cultures of a Penicillium, with Special Reference to Their Use in the Isolation of B. Influenzae. British Journal of Experimental Pathology, 10(3), 226-236.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  12. Gerberi, Danielle (2024). Alexander Fleming: A Second Look. Journal of the Medical Library Association, 112(1), 55-59. https://doi.org/10.5195/jmla.2024.1780
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  13. Robertson, Morgan (1912). The Wreck of the Titan: Or, Futility.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  14. (2026). Titanic. Wikipedia.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  15. (2026). The Wreck of the Titan: Or, Futility. Wikipedia.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-10
  16. Merton, Robert K. (1961). Singletons and Multiples in Scientific Discovery: A Chapter in the Sociology of Science. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 105(5), 470-486.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-11
  17. van Wyhe, John; Rookmaaker, Kees (2012). A New Theory to Explain the Receipt of Wallace's Ternate Essay by Darwin in 1858. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 105(1), 249-252. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01808.x
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-11
  18. Davies, Roy (2012). How Charles Darwin Received Wallace's Ternate Paper 15 Days Earlier Than He Claimed: A Comment on van Wyhe and Rookmaaker (2012). Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 105(2), 472-477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01858.x
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-11
  19. (2018). 160th Anniversary of the Presentation of "On the Tendency of Species to Form Varieties". The Linnean Society of London.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-11
  20. Hájek, Alan (2007). The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too. Synthese, 156(3), 563-585. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-006-9138-5
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  21. Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1973). On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  22. Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich (1995). How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats. Psychological Review, 102(4), 684-704. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  23. Grinstead, Charles M.; Snell, J. Laurie (1997). Introduction to Probability.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  24. Milgram, Stanley (1967). The Small-World Problem. Psychology Today, 1(1), 61-67.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  25. Watts, Duncan J.; Strogatz, Steven H. (1998). Collective Dynamics of 'Small-World' Networks. Nature, 393(6684), 440-442. https://doi.org/10.1038/30918
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  26. Mangel, Marc; Samaniego, Francisco J. (1984). Abraham Wald's Work on Aircraft Survivability. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79(386), 259-267. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1984.10478038
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  27. Kerr, Norbert L. (1998). HARKing: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 2(3), 196-217. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr0203_4
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  28. Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1973). Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  29. Chapman, Loren J.; Chapman, Jean P. (1967). Genesis of Popular but Erroneous Psychodiagnostic Observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72(3), 193-204. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0024670
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  30. Heider, Fritz; Simmel, Marianne (1944). An Experimental Study of Apparent Behavior. The American Journal of Psychology, 57(2), 243-259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1416950
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  31. Clark, Andy (2013). Whatever Next? Predictive Brains, Situated Agents, and the Future of Cognitive Science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), 181-204. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X12000477
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  32. Meyer, Wulf-Uwe; Reisenzein, Rainer; Schützwohl, Achim (1997). Toward a Process Analysis of Emotions: The Case of Surprise. Motivation and Emotion, 21, 251-274. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024422330338
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  33. Fyfe, Sophie; Williams, Claire; Mason, Oliver J.; Pickup, Graham J. (2008). Apophenia, Theory of Mind and Schizotypy: Perceiving Meaning and Intentionality in Randomness. Cortex, 44(10), 1316-1325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2007.07.009
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  34. Sagan, Carl (1996). The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  35. Popper, Karl R. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  36. Open Science Collaboration, (2015). Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science. Science, 349(6251), aac4716. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  37. Rosenthal, Robert (1979). The File Drawer Problem and Tolerance for Null Results. Psychological Bulletin, 86(3), 638-641. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  38. Ioannidis, John P. A. (2005). Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. PLoS Medicine, 2(8), e124. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  39. Bayes, Thomas; Price, Richard (1763). An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370-418. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1763.0053
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  40. Bem, Daryl J. (2011). Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 407-425. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021524
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  41. Galak, Jeff; LeBoeuf, Robyn A.; Nelson, Leif D.; Simmons, Joseph P. (2012). Correcting the Past: Failures to Replicate Psi. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(6), 933-948. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0029709
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  42. Altman, Douglas G.; Bland, J. Martin (1995). Statistics Notes: Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence. BMJ, 311(7003), 485. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.311.7003.485
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  43. Snopes.com, (1999). Are These 'Coincidences' Linking Lincoln to Kennedy Real?. Snopes.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  44. Wikipedia contributors, (2026). Lincoln–Kennedy coincidences urban legend. Wikipedia.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  45. Gardner, Martin (1985). The Magic Numbers of Dr. Matrix.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  46. Warren Commission, (1964). Appendix 13: Biography of Lee Harvey Oswald. Report of the President's Commission on the Assassination of President Kennedy.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  47. American Battlefield Trust, (2026). John Wilkes Booth.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  48. LBJ Presidential Library, (2026). Lyndon B. Johnson.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  49. Library of Congress, (2026). Today in History - December 29 (Birth of Andrew Johnson).
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  50. Bouchard, Thomas J., Jr.; Lykken, David T.; McGue, Matthew; Segal, Nancy L.; Tellegen, Auke (1990). Sources of Human Psychological Differences: The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart. Science, 250(4978), 223-228. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.2218526
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  51. Joseph, Jay (2016). "Bewitching Science" Revisited: Tales of Reunited Twins and the Genetics of Behavior. Mad in America.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  52. LimaOhio.com, (2015). Reunited After 39 Years. The Lima News.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  53. Wikipedia contributors, (2026). Evelyn Adams (lottery winner). Wikipedia.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  54. Callan, Michael Feeney (1994). Anthony Hopkins: The Unauthorized Biography.
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12
  55. Nielsen, Tore; Zadra, Antonio; Simard, Valerie; Saucier, Sebastien; Stenstrom, Philippe; Smith, Carlyle; Kuiken, Don (2003). The Typical Dreams of Canadian University Students. Dreaming, 13(4), 211-235. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:DREM.0000003144.40929.0b
    Review status: verified · Accessed 2026-9-12