This page will document, in full, how the site assigns its epistemic labels (established, supported, contested, speculative, historical/cultural, anecdotal), how a reference class and time window are chosen for a probability claim, and how simulations are reviewed before publication.
Until that documentation is written, the working rules are stated in the site’s internal build plan: state the reference class, time window, assumptions, and data source for every probability; separate a prior prediction from a retrospective match; and never multiply guessed, non-independent probabilities together to produce an “astronomical odds” figure.