Probability Is A Model

2 pages on this site touch on this topic.

• Probability is a model, not a verdict — Why a probability is always a statement about a chosen model and reference class, not a fact about a unique event — worked through the birthday problem.
• Reference classes: compared with what, exactly? — Every probability judgment implicitly compares an event to a class of similar events — and changing that class can change the answer without any new evidence.