Post Hoc Probability

4 pages on this site touch on this topic.

• Coincidence Generator — Generate entirely fictional synthetic lives and search them for matches — see how widening what counts as a match multiplies apparent coincidences.
• Dream Diary Test — See how often a synthetic dream diary appears to 'predict' the next day purely by chance — a methodology demo with no real dreams or diary entries involved.
• Post-hoc probability: painting the target after — Choosing which pattern counts as "the match" after seeing the outcome inflates apparent improbability, in coincidence lists and in research alike.
• Pre-registration for everyday predictions — Writing a specific prediction down before an event is the simplest defense against fitting a matching criterion to a result you already know.