Evaluation Method

8 pages on this site touch on this topic.

• Anecdotes and data: a story isn't a systematic count — A single memorable story can be completely true and still be the weakest available form of evidence for a general claim about how often something happens.
• Common red flags in coincidence claims — A quick-reference list of the recurring warning signs that a striking coincidence claim has not been through, or would not survive, careful evaluation.
• How science tests unusual claims — Extraordinary claims aren't rejected on principle — they're held to a higher evidentiary bar, because ordinary explanations are usually true.
• How to evaluate a coincidence claim — A twelve-step method for weighing a striking coincidence, from writing down the exact claim to stating plainly what remains unresolved.
• Pre-registration for everyday predictions — Writing a specific prediction down before an event is the simplest defense against fitting a matching criterion to a result you already know.
• Reference-class worksheet — A practical worksheet for step 6 of the evaluation method: stating explicitly which comparison group a coincidence's probability is measured against.
• Source checklist — A practical checklist for step 3 of the evaluation method: verifying the facts of a coincidence claim before any probability reasoning is applied to it.
• Worked example: Darwin, Wallace, and the method — Applying the full twelve-step evaluation method to a real, already fact-checked case, to show what each step looks like in practice rather than in the abstract.