Conditional Probability

3 pages on this site touch on this topic.

• Base-Rate Updater — See how a rare claimed ability, a good-sounding test, and a low base rate combine — most people who pass such a test still don't have the ability.
• Bayesian updating: belief in proportion to evidence — A coherent way to update how strongly you believe something, in light of new evidence, without treating a single surprising observation as instant proof.
• Conditional probability: given what, exactly? — "How likely is A?" and "how likely is A, given B?" can have very different answers — and coincidence stories often quietly swap one for the other.