Bayesian Updating

2 pages on this site touch on this topic.

• Base-Rate Updater — See how a rare claimed ability, a good-sounding test, and a low base rate combine — most people who pass such a test still don't have the ability.
• Bayesian updating: belief in proportion to evidence — A coherent way to update how strongly you believe something, in light of new evidence, without treating a single surprising observation as instant proof.